Blockchain: A Technology that Definitively Determines the Past and the Future
Blockchain technology is known for its use in digital currencies and crypto-assets, starting with Bitcoin, and also plays a role in digital transactions and contracts, like smart contracts.
I view this technology in a broader context, focusing especially on its ability to create immutable records and execute programmable processes at future points in time in a practically unchangeable manner. To me, it appears as a technology that definitively determines both the past and the future.
Generally, the past is considered fixed and unchangeable, while the future is seen as uncertain and unpredictable, yet changeable.
In the first part of this article, I will present a different perspective on this concept. Then, in the latter half, I will explain my thoughts on how blockchain technology revolutionizes our concepts of the past and the future. This transformation in our understanding of the past and future leads to a transformation in the concept of trust within our society. I want to explore the potential impact of this transformation on society.
Objective Past and Subjective Past
Let’s start with the past.
From experience, we know that what we are currently experiencing determines the future, and that the present is fixed. By extrapolation, events that happened in the distant past or in places we have not directly witnessed are also assumed to be fixed.
This cannot be proven, but objectively, it is likely true. There is no evidence to suggest that the past is not fixed or that it varies.
However, subjectively, the past is not fixed. Our subjective perception of the past relies on memory and records. We know from experience that our memories are not fixed and can be vague and fluctuating. Likewise, records are not constant and often contain misunderstandings or fabrications.
Therefore, by collecting multiple memories and records, and assuming the past is fixed, we try to determine the past using objective criteria to see if everything fits together.
Hence, while objectively the past may be fixed, subjectively, it is adjusted by us to seem fixed. When information is lacking or when there are multiple conflicting pieces of information, the subjective past can have uncertainties and multiple possibilities.
Objective Future and Subjective Future
Now, let’s consider the future.
Depending on your perspective, the future might be fixed objectively, but subjectively, it is uncertain and variable.
The idea that the future is objectively determined is known as determinism. Physically, for example, if an object in a vacuum has a certain velocity, its position one second later can be precisely predicted. Thus, the future of that object is already determined.
Applying this idea to all atoms and energy in the universe, the future one second from now is already determined, and so is the next second, extending indefinitely into a predetermined future.
Of course, this doesn’t mean we can predict it. Calculating the future of all atoms and energy is practically impossible, and accurately knowing their current positions and velocities is also impossible. However, being able to predict and being determined are two different things.
On the other hand, subjectively, the future is uncertain and variable. This is because, even if we could predict a determined future, we might change our actions based on that predicted information. This would lead to a future contrary to what was predicted. Therefore, even if the future is objectively determined, our subjective future is always uncertain and variable.
Synthesis of Understanding the Past and Future
To summarize, both the past and the future are objectively fixed and determined. However, subjectively, both are uncertain and have variances.
The uncertainty and variance of subjective past and future increase the further they are from the present. This is similar to how things farther away in three-dimensional space are harder to see and appear blurry. From the subjective standpoint of being here and now, things that are temporally and spatially close appear more fixed, while distant things are indeterminate and blurry.
Conversely, objectively, regardless of spatial or temporal distance, everything is determined independently of our subjective “here and now.”
Note: For simplicity, quantum mechanical uncertainties were omitted from this discussion. If quantum uncertainty were to be included, what is determined is not the physical location but the probability distribution. Objectively, both the past and future are determined as probability distributions. Subjectively, these distributions also contain uncertainties and variances.
Established Subjective Past
The reason for clarifying the past and future is to elucidate the true value of Bitcoin technology.
Blockchain technology, used in Bitcoin, is a method to make the history of the past immutable. While the information recorded in the blockchain is entered by humans and not entirely immutable, Bitcoin’s network is structured such that a change is not valid unless the majority of servers in the network agree to it.
Bitcoin’s network is managed by numerous administrators worldwide, many of whom benefit from Bitcoin remaining unaltered. These individuals come from diverse social backgrounds.
Therefore, even if a powerful government requests a change, it cannot be implemented unless a majority of these administrators comply, which is unlikely as it goes against their interests. Thus, a change in Bitcoin’s blockchain information is theoretically possible but practically impossible under the current social system.
Bitcoin is ingenious not just because of its technological sophistication, but also for using social structures to achieve immutability. This is an invention that could not have been conceived by purely technical thought.
By utilizing this social mechanism to achieve practical immutability, Bitcoin introduces a fundamental change in how we perceive the past. As previously discussed, our subjective past is fraught with uncertainties and variances.
However, at least the transactions on Bitcoin’s blockchain are recorded without any alterations or omissions. Until now, our knowledge of the past, based on memory or written records, was prone to forgetfulness, blurring, misunderstandings, or alterations. Hence, our subjective past was uncertain.
But for Bitcoin transaction history recorded on the blockchain, there are no leaks, blurs, misunderstandings, or alterations. While it’s a narrow range of information, it’s arguably the most certain and established information about the past that humanity possesses.
Therefore, blockchain technology has the potential to create a subjectively established past.
However, it’s important to note that the reliability of Bitcoin’s transaction history is assured because it’s inherently linked to the system itself, which prevents the inclusion of false or mistaken information at the time of recording. Simply recording information on a blockchain is insufficient if the original data could be fake.
So, forming an established past is not just about recording on a blockchain, and whether we can record actual events as a subjectively established past remains unclear. However, for transactions in worlds like the metaverse, the application of this principle seems more feasible.
Established Subjective Future
Another reason for discussing Bitcoin is its ability to establish a subjective future.
Bitcoin is known for requiring extensive computational checks by servers participating in its network to ensure the transaction history is not tampered with. While these checks incur significant operational costs, the system is designed so servers earn Bitcoin in return, making it a viable business as long as the value of earned Bitcoin exceeds these costs.
To prevent devaluation of Bitcoin due to excessive rewards, its system is designed to reduce future rewards. This reduction is fixed and cannot be changed by anyone to prevent manipulation of Bitcoin’s value per unit.
This means Bitcoin, like its immutable past through blockchain, creates an immutable future. To my knowledge, there is no other human-made system that renders its future so unalterable.
This represents a deterministic future in two senses: the future is foreseeable, and even if foreseeable, actions to change it are ineffective.
In principle, changing the algorithm of all servers in Bitcoin is not impossible, but it’s practically unfeasible due to the social structures in place. The future’s immutability also utilizes social mechanisms.
Thus, while limited to the aspect of reward reduction, Bitcoin achieves an immutable and established subjective future. This suggests the possibility of forming an established future, similar to an established past. Although applying this to the physical real world seems challenging, it could be applicable in forming a determined future within the realms of informational assets like Bitcoin or virtual worlds like the metaverse.
Smart Contracts
Ethereum, the cryptocurrency second in popularity to Bitcoin, has gained its popularity due to the implementation of a mechanism known as smart contracts. These are operational contracts that utilize the immutable history characteristic of the blockchain. Programs written in these contracts operate on the Ethereum blockchain.
For instance, they allow for transactions where if Mr. A pays a certain amount of Ethereum to Mr. B by a specified date, an NFT token owned by Mr. B automatically becomes the property of Mr. A. Additionally, if Mr. A fails to pay by the deadline, a penalty can be programmed so that a certain amount of Ethereum is automatically transferred from Mr. A to Mr. B as a fine. This mechanism makes it possible to execute complex contracts reliably.
While smart contracts are limited to the realm of cryptocurrency and digital assets on the blockchain, they function more reliably than traditional paper contracts. Like the reduction of Bitcoin rewards, they also form a deterministic future. Unlike Bitcoin’s reward reduction, however, they allow for a predetermined future that many people can freely add to.
The True Value of Blockchain Technology
The true value of blockchain technology lies in its ability to objectively determine the past and future, as demonstrated by Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This determination is limited to digital entities recorded on the blockchain. However, Bitcoin’s convertibility with real currency implies an indirect but significant impact on the real world. The implementation of mechanisms like NFTs for managing real estate or art ownership, or transitioning paper contracts to smart contracts, could further deepen this impact on society.
In this way, even though these are digital events, the technology for forming a subjectively certain past and future holds implications that are likely much broader than we currently realize. Our society has been shaped with the assumption that the past and future are subjectively uncertain.
This revolutionary progress in forming a determinable past and future could be as significant as the change in humanity before and after the invention of language. The potential and implications of language at its inception were likely far narrower than what it eventually brought about.
I heard about the introduction of video refereeing in soccer, which led to fairer play and a more interesting game as players refrained from committing unseen fouls. When considering the true value of blockchain technology, this soccer story seems hopeful to me.
Having the past accurately recorded and judged can create some anxiety, but it also has the potential for fantastic benefits.
Regarding the future, I hope this technology of forming a determinable future can be unexpectedly beneficial in addressing current issues like environmental challenges and societal divisions.
In Conclusion: Trust which depended on Majority’s Goodwill
The essence of non-cooperation and division is not necessarily malice but could stem from difficulties in understanding others and multicultural nuances. Even formal treaties, due to their linguistic imperfections, leave room for interpretation, and these gaps often widen due to misunderstandings or different interpretations arising from language differences or variations in common understanding.
If such issues can arise even in formal treaties, misunderstandings and misinterpretations are natural in our daily transactions and interactions. These experiences could foster a sense of discomfort or distrust towards other cultures. While misunderstandings can be tolerated in peaceful and low-stake situations, in more severe contexts, they might be perceived as malicious by others.
Being able to form a precisely determinable past and future helps prevent these misunderstandings and misinterpretations. If there is a misunderstanding, it’s clear it’s not due to the other’s malice but one’s own mistake. Of course, there is a way of interaction where ambiguity is deliberately maintained, but having the option to choose strict determination by mutual agreement is a significant advancement.
While there are indeed people with malicious intentions, they are a minority in normal groups. The overwhelming majority of people are fundamentally good. A few malicious individuals can bring distrust and caution to society, and misunderstandings and distrust can divide groups. Until now, it has been challenging to distinguish between malice and goodwill and to build trust over misunderstandings and distrust.
However, if we can properly harness the technology that allows us to form a precisely determinable past and future, we might overturn these conditions. Bitcoin utilizes social and economic mechanisms to make rewriting by a majority of servers practically impossible. If applied, this could create a system where, if the majority are well-intentioned, manipulations by malicious intentions are not permitted, establishing a foundation of trust in a precisely determinable past and future, independent of human trust.
Such a system could lead to a world where trust relationships are easily built if the majority holds goodwill. As I mentioned earlier, I believe the condition of the majority’s goodwill is easily met. Therefore, if such a system can be realized, it could bring about an unprecedented situation in society, where trust relationships are easily built even among different cultures and mindsets.
