Deviation from Prediction: Deciding How to Live on Your Own Terms
Every day, we go about our lives thinking about the immediate present, the near future, and the distant future. We possess the ability to predict what lies ahead. When reality deviates from our predictions, our emotions get triggered — either to deal with that deviation or to learn for future predictions.
Because we dislike large deviations from our predictions, our own actions tend to get confined to patterns from the past. When we try to change something we’ve gotten used to, it’s perceived as a deviation from prediction, which evokes an emotional resistance.
Personally, I’ve been trying to understand this mechanism to better manage my own emotions. After considering things intellectually, I follow my heart when it’s right and change when change is necessary. I’ve been trying to design my life this way.
In this article, I’ll discuss the brain, the body, rationality, and emotions from the perspective of predictive abilities and link them to how we live our lives.
The Brain’s Role in Prediction
A major role of intelligence is prediction.
Because of the significant role of prediction, when there’s a mismatch between prediction and reality, the brain reacts strongly. This reaction can be either negative or positive.
Examples of negative reactions include:
- Predicted impacts don’t hurt as much, but unexpected ones can cause intense pain.
- Stepping onto a stationary escalator can disrupt our balance and feel uncomfortable.
Examples of positive reactions are:
- Playing or training with complex moving objects is enjoyable. For instance, juggling a soccer ball or playing wall tennis can be unpredictable even when you’re used to them, making them captivating.
- Through such games and training, physical learning takes place. Deviations from predictions leading to learning might be something the brain reacts positively to.
- Novels, movies, comedy, and other forms of entertainment derive their appeal from these deviations from predictions. This could be another instance where the brain has a positive reaction, as it provides an opportunity to learn about humans and society.
The Gap Between Predictions and Emotions
When there’s a deviation between prediction and reality, substances inducing emotions might be released in the brain. These can be differentiated into positive and negative.
The released substances might emphasize pain or surprise, amplifying sensations. This might be why the same impact can be felt differently.
Also, brain neurons utilize the gap between prediction and reality for learning. Accompanied by brain substances, the intensity of this learning is believed to be enhanced.
Deviation from Predictions
Intelligence, which has the role of predicting, also anticipates one’s actions. Actions repeated frequently can be performed unconsciously using predictions.
Even if deliberately trying to act differently from usual, significant resistance is felt. Even if that different action aligns with one’s happiness or values, resistance is still experienced.
This is commonly understood as the inertial force of the mind resisting change, but it can also be interpreted as the difficulty of changing one’s self-image based on predictions.
This means that the reason for the resistance is the “deviation from prediction.” Since predicting is a major function of the brain, it dislikes when actual actions deviate from predictions. It might make the brain anxious as predictions become unreliable.
The same mechanism applies when others deviate from our predictions. We feel betrayed even if we’re not directly harmed when others deviate from normative behavior. Many celebrity scandals are a result of this “deviation from prediction.”
Deviation from Predictions and the “Heart”
Rational thinking is based purely on neural network simulations in the brain, what we call reason.
On the other hand, predictions aren’t solely done by the brain. The body also predicts. Before organisms acquired neurons, they improved their survival skills by making physical predictions. Humans are also believed to make predictions not just through their nervous systems but also through their bodily systems.
Deviation from these body-inclusive predictions isn’t easy based on reason alone. When deviating from these predictions, there is a bodily resistance. This bodily reaction to deviations is considered the workings of the “heart.”
For instance, if I’m taking a shortcut, I’ll avoid stepping on a flower but won’t mind stepping on grass. My heart differentiates between the grass and the flower.
Though I intellectually understand that both are equally living plants, I just can’t bring myself to step on a flower. Just imagining it pains my heart.
Mind as an Accumulation of Images
I have an ingrained image within me that prompts me to avoid stepping on flowers. This image stems from past experiences, customs, picture books, stories, and the actions and words of those around me, all telling me that I should cherish flowers.
Even if no one is watching, even if that flower is bound to wither soon, it remains the same. I can’t deviate from the image of myself within.
Numerous such images have accumulated within me, shaping my heart and mind.
How to Live
Speaking for myself, I aspire to manage my heart as rightly as possible with my own rationality. I’m a realist and a pragmatist. I value things that are beneficial for my life rather than respecting or valuing something without reason. Therefore, I want to manage my heart rationally.
Consequently, even if my heart resists, if something is rationally right for my life, I want to be able to make that choice. To do that, I need to understand the workings and mechanisms of my heart.
I don’t intend to take my heart lightly. Within it, built up by cultural and customary images taught by those around me, there are many things that, even when reasoned rationally, can be positive for my life.
Showing compassion to others, eating healthy, and spending time and money on enjoyable activities all resonate with my heart and also seem rational.
It’s essential to be accountable. There’s no need for rash changes. There’s no need to become someone who can step on flowers. If I became such a person, those around me would be saddened. That’s why I avoid stepping on flowers.
Instead of merely listening to the voice of my heart, I want to shape my rationality and heart, my mind and body, and my life according to my will.
Practice of Deviating from Predictions
Of course, there are aspects of my life that need changing.
Although I had a timid personality, I’ve strived to manage it rationally to ensure it doesn’t become a hindrance in my life. To do so, I needed to overcome the resistance of my heart.
When I was younger, I practiced changing small habits. I bought brightly colored clothes I wouldn’t usually choose, sat at the center table in a cafeteria, thanked store clerks with a smile, picked up discarded cans, and so on.
While these actions didn’t inconvenience anyone and some were even positive, I intentionally made such choices even when they felt uncomfortable. Looking back, it was an exercise in deviating from predictions, getting my heart used to it.
Doing this gradually built my confidence and helped me grasp how to overcome the resistance of my heart.
In Conclusion
In this article, I introduced the interpretation that both the brain and the body possess harmonious predictive abilities. I also wrote about empirical observations where discrepancies between predictions and reality trigger emotional responses or the act of deviating oneself can cause psychological resistance.
I believe that becoming too entrapped by rationality can paradoxically lead to irrationality. Prioritizing immediate gains can result in long-term losses in the bigger picture of life. Being true to one’s heart is essential, but placing too much trust in it might lead to dissonance with those around us. Both rationality and the heart should be leveraged in balance as capabilities to enrich life. That’s my belief.
